A Spurious Relationship

Every time there is a discussion on a sustainable development or on environmental issues a discussion on population becomes inevitable. It would appear that these two issues are joined at the hip, at least in India. While the world debates environmental issues in far-off Rio, on the occasion of the twentieth year of the Earth Summit, citizen’s of Delhi are reeling from a very hot summer with huge shortages of electricity and water. This makes for a classic case for applying the environment – population logic with climate change neatly tied into the argument. The middle-class denizen of Delhi can additionally fume about the daily increments to the 20 million or more people already in the city, complaining of crowds, price-rise and population in the same breath. Population it may thus appear is the one BIG problem which leads to many of our middle-class woes.    

India’s population is now over 1.2 billion and growing. Most would argue that alone should qualify as a big problem. While the first statement is true, it does not provide the whole picture. Imagine driving very fast on a highway when you see an errant driver coming from the other side. You brake, the tyres screech, and you avoid hitting the other person, and coming out you see that your tyre marks are there for over 200 meters on the stretch of road. It is the same with India’s population- it is in that phase when the brakes are applied and still the car keeps moving! You see it growing while the brakes are securely applied. India’s population growth is decelerating rapidly – however it is still moving and we cannot see the tyre marks. There are two other points that we who live in urban area miss when we complain about growing crowds.

A city like Delhi is growing rapidly, but it does not grow because of high birth rates – it grows due to high immigration rates. And while the youth of middle class India seeks fresher pastures abroad those of the rural hinterland come to Delhi. Today many villages comprise mostly of children, women and old people, and the population there is rapidly dwindling.

For every long term resident in Delhi family the ‘shaadi’ season is full of competing invitations , a sign that India is country of young people. Now these young people are getting married and also reproducing. These couples have small families but since there are many more couples now, compared to earlier times and school admissions are increasing becoming difficult.

This brings me to the issue of shortages – seats in schools or colleges or space for parking our cars or to electricity and water. The most persuasive argument seems to be that if there were fewer people to ask for these services then the problem would be solved. Presto the problem is in the number of people! Let me provide a different way of looking at the same problem. Do all 20 million Delhi-wallas consume electricity, water, parking space or nursery school seats equally? Do all have cars, or refrigerators, or dream of sending their children to the neighbourhood private school. The issue here is partly due to our rising aspirations, and partly poor planning. Countries with greater per capita consumption of electricity or of cars seem to be managing better.

India is going through rapid socio-economic transformations, and this is leading to changes in our population structure, its aspirations and ability to spend and consume and I believe its ability to understand the complexities that these changes bring about. I am sure we will understand that the ‘population problem’ is more a result of applying old ways of thinking to new realities. I am also sure we will realise that for sustainable environmental planning the rates of consumption matter most. I know we will also understand the true relationship between environment and population and will become conscious about our own aspirations and consumption patterns, before blaming the poor who appear to crowd our streets having nowhere else to go.

The streets of Lagos, Nigeria

Street-side Vendors

Lagos, Nigeria was the sixth African city that I have visited in the last one and half years. I did not get to do much sight-seeing or tourism on my three day flying visit but I was privileged to spend most of my time with Nigerians. Nigeria I knew was the largest African country, but I learnt that it was very fragmented. It has 36 states or provinces, 6 regions and over 250 ethnic groups with their different cultures and languages. English is the common language which binds the country together. The other common features, at least among the men seemed their love of football and their propensity to discuss politics. The car that took me from the airport had two football banners hanging from the centre of the windshield – one of Chelsea and other of the ‘Super Eagles’ as the Nigerian national team is known. This passion for football and politics reminded me of the Kolkata I had left behind in the 80’s when passionate discussions on these subjects would be stuff of the ‘rock er adda’ or informal street side discussions. It was not surprising that the men reveled in political discussions, since the country has been under military rule for a long time – and surely they were making up for those missed opportunities.  

         

The Danphu

Lagos is the commercial capital of the country and is the biggest city. I heard its population to be 10 million, 12 million and 15 million, clearly after a certain size or number the additions don’t matter at least to the inhabitants. At present the city was divided into mainland and Lagos Island, and there are some more islands which had now been incorporated into the metropolis. Lagos Island was the downtown or business headquarters and was connected to the mainland with three bridges. One of these bridges was being repaired and closed to traffic, and so the overall traffic situation in Lagos was as chaotic as one can imagine in Mumbai or in Kolkata. I was told by one of the locals who goes out to work in the Island that she and her friends hang out after office till after 8.30pm and then return because it would take them as much time to return home if they started immediately after office. In other cities of Africa like Nairobi or Dar E Salaam I had noted that the traffic, even when stuck would be in straight lines. It was not like that at all in Lagos. Like in any good Indian traffic jam – it was snarled up with cars edging sideways to jump lanes and two wheelers trying to squeeze through the tiniest gaps. Two wheelers were aplenty, but in Lagos they were used as public transport, the quickest ride. I was told that there were plans to ban them in the past, because of their unruly drivers. In recent times three wheelers (autorickshaws) from India have also made their way to Lagos.  

Motorcycles waiting for a passenger

Much of my sightseeing in Lagos was limited to seeing the world outside the window of the car I travelled in. I noticed that there was a BRT on some of the arterial roads, nothing as fancy as the one in Delhi, but a separate lane on the outside. Busses (mostly made by Tata and Ashok Leyland) would whizz by as we crawled ahead. The bus stops were spiffy, in contrast most other structures on the road looked slightly rundown. And the most amazing sight was to see long queues waiting patiently to board these busses. In contrast the most popular public transport were the yellow coloured minibuses which the locals call the ‘danphu’. The drivers looked calm and composed as they crazily wove their way in traffic and the conductors hung out from the doorway calling for more passengers.

The new BRT 

Even though much of what I saw in Lagos was limited to the street, there was a whole world to be seen on the streets much like in the older sections of big Indian cities. Like in other cities there would be a host of young men with things to sell when the cars stopped at the street corners. In Delhi it is mostly books and magazines, sometimes toys and of course flowers. In Lagos I saw people selling mobile phones, mobile recharge, DVDs, buckets, mugs and other plastic equipment, complete multi-piece toolkit with hammer, saw, screwdriver etc. My associate who was travelling with me recounted how it is said that while travelling back from office you can buy yourself a stove, utensils and vegetables at the red lights and cook yourself a meal by the time you reach home.

The high-rises of Lagos Island

In contrast to the mainland Lagos Island was full of high-rise buildings and broad roads. The waterfront boasted of many sleek looking and high powered vessels. I was attending a training event and our whole group went for an evening cruise. We went past the port where there many huge ships brining in hundreds and thousands of containers. I was told that even toothpicks come from China. There were also many huge oil containers on the waterfront. On asking whether oil was shipped out I was told that the crude was shipped out from the Niger delta region and refined petroleum products were imported through Lagos. The most important news of the day was the death of nearly 100 persons in an oil tanker explosion in the North. The villagers had rushed to scoop oil spilling from an overturned oil tanker, when the tanker had exploded. It was a pity to see and hear of such poverty in such an oil rich country. Nigeria has among the highest oil reserves among all countries of the world, and of course the price of petrol at less than 100 naira per litre was about half the price in India.

Women in multicoloured splendour

While the country is considered very poor, the people I met with were a very lively lot. Gender and positional (authority) distinctions seemed less than one would expect in a similar situation in India. Many men and women wore traditional dresses. It would be unusual to see so many men wearing their traditional dress in a meeting of national and international NGOs  in India. The men wore a long kurta like shirt sometimes called a ‘buba’ (in many cases longer than the kurta) over a pair of trousers (called ‘sokoto’) which is made from the same material. These would be embroidered in some cases, made of vibrant and colourful prints or of textured materials. Men would also a wear a cap, which I was told was distinctive to their ethnic group. Women wore a variety of headdresses which seemed to be twisted from a scarf like length of the same material as their dress. Before leaving Lagos I bought a colourful ‘buba’ for myself but I don’t think I will be able to wear it to a meeting.