A Spurious Relationship

Every time there is a discussion on a sustainable development or on environmental issues a discussion on population becomes inevitable. It would appear that these two issues are joined at the hip, at least in India. While the world debates environmental issues in far-off Rio, on the occasion of the twentieth year of the Earth Summit, citizen’s of Delhi are reeling from a very hot summer with huge shortages of electricity and water. This makes for a classic case for applying the environment – population logic with climate change neatly tied into the argument. The middle-class denizen of Delhi can additionally fume about the daily increments to the 20 million or more people already in the city, complaining of crowds, price-rise and population in the same breath. Population it may thus appear is the one BIG problem which leads to many of our middle-class woes.    

India’s population is now over 1.2 billion and growing. Most would argue that alone should qualify as a big problem. While the first statement is true, it does not provide the whole picture. Imagine driving very fast on a highway when you see an errant driver coming from the other side. You brake, the tyres screech, and you avoid hitting the other person, and coming out you see that your tyre marks are there for over 200 meters on the stretch of road. It is the same with India’s population- it is in that phase when the brakes are applied and still the car keeps moving! You see it growing while the brakes are securely applied. India’s population growth is decelerating rapidly – however it is still moving and we cannot see the tyre marks. There are two other points that we who live in urban area miss when we complain about growing crowds.

A city like Delhi is growing rapidly, but it does not grow because of high birth rates – it grows due to high immigration rates. And while the youth of middle class India seeks fresher pastures abroad those of the rural hinterland come to Delhi. Today many villages comprise mostly of children, women and old people, and the population there is rapidly dwindling.

For every long term resident in Delhi family the ‘shaadi’ season is full of competing invitations , a sign that India is country of young people. Now these young people are getting married and also reproducing. These couples have small families but since there are many more couples now, compared to earlier times and school admissions are increasing becoming difficult.

This brings me to the issue of shortages – seats in schools or colleges or space for parking our cars or to electricity and water. The most persuasive argument seems to be that if there were fewer people to ask for these services then the problem would be solved. Presto the problem is in the number of people! Let me provide a different way of looking at the same problem. Do all 20 million Delhi-wallas consume electricity, water, parking space or nursery school seats equally? Do all have cars, or refrigerators, or dream of sending their children to the neighbourhood private school. The issue here is partly due to our rising aspirations, and partly poor planning. Countries with greater per capita consumption of electricity or of cars seem to be managing better.

India is going through rapid socio-economic transformations, and this is leading to changes in our population structure, its aspirations and ability to spend and consume and I believe its ability to understand the complexities that these changes bring about. I am sure we will understand that the ‘population problem’ is more a result of applying old ways of thinking to new realities. I am also sure we will realise that for sustainable environmental planning the rates of consumption matter most. I know we will also understand the true relationship between environment and population and will become conscious about our own aspirations and consumption patterns, before blaming the poor who appear to crowd our streets having nowhere else to go.